The US seems to have confirmed the forward deployment of upgraded B61-12 nuclear bombs, touted as the most dangerous weapon in its nuclear arsenal, with its NATO Allies in Europe.
This comes as the US prepares for a world with two nuclear peers – Russia and China, by modernizing its nuclear weapons and considering restarting a domestic uranium enrichment program for defense purposes.
So far, there have been unconfirmed reports about NATO bases in Europe receiving upgraded B61-12 air-dropped gravity bombs. It is a modernized version of the B61 thermonuclear gravity bombs that have been part of the US nuclear arsenal since 1968. They have been one of the oldest and most versatile weapons in the US nuclear weapon stockpile.
The upgrading of the bomb has been undergoing for some time under one of the most expensive nuclear bomb projects ever.
The 12-foot B61-12 bomb carries a 50 kilotons warhead—the equivalent of 50,000 tons of TNT. It is known for its precision owing to a controlled tail rudder that also allows for the removal of its parachute.
This enables the pilots to airdrop the bomb miles away from the target. The B83 nuclear bomb, by comparison, has a maximum yield of 1.2 megatons, or 1,200 kilotons.
“We have advanced our thinking together about critical supply chain resilience. NATO is strong. The new B61-12 gravity bombs are fully forward deployed, and we have increased NATO’s visibility to our nuclear capabilities through visits to our enterprise and other regular engagements,” National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Administrator Jill Hruby said in remarks at the Hudson Institute covering NNSA challenges, accomplishments, and the future of the nuclear security enterprise.
Hans Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists, reacted to the statement by saying: “This almost sounds like official confirmation that deployment of the B61-12 to Europe has begun.”
In the past, Russia has said that the deployment of the upgraded bomb will amount to lowering the “nuclear threshold.”
At the moment, the US has some 200 working tactical nuclear weapons, half of which are deployed in allies’ bases in Belgium, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Russia, on the other hand, is estimated to have around 2,000 such weapons.
Talking about the present nuclear landscape that is different from that 80 years ago, Hruby said: “A tripolar or multipolar nuclear order is more complex than a bipolar one, and new relevant deterrence theory is less developed and has not been practiced. “
Hruby spoke about America’s strategic partnership with the UK, whose commitment to nuclear deterrence remains strong. Talking about the US nuclear enterprise, Hruby added: “We continue to work with Japan and South Korea, including in new trilateral science and technology efforts. New alliances, notably AUKUS, have been formed that help us respond to the shifting global dynamics. And nuclear material removal and replacement efforts and nuclear security cooperation continue all over the world.”
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Russia and the US currently own approximately 90 percent of all nuclear warheads, with each having around 4,000 warheads in their military stockpiles.
Explaining the international geopolitical environment through the lens of nuclear security and deterrence, Hruby talked about Russia’s repeated involvement in norms-violating behavior like ransacking Chornobyl and then occupying the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. “Warfighting in nuclear zones has raised concerns about the potential catastrophic consequences and introduced new considerations in 21st Century warfare,” she elaborated.
Since the Ukraine invasion, Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, “de-ratified” its accession to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, revised its nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear use, and seems to be exploring space-based nuclear weapons as a new leg of its nuclear forces. It has also received significant military support from Iran and North Korea. While this support is focused on conventional assets, we cannot rule out the possibility of nuclear weapon technology sharing now or in the future.
In December 2024, the B61-12 life extension program reached its Last Production Unit, finishing its production run just three years after starting. In October 2024, NNSA announced the introduction of the B61-13 to expand options by adding a capability for certain hard and large-area military targets.
Rising Chinese Atomic Threat
The US is also wary of China’s rise as it expands the size of its nuclear arsenal along with sophisticated new delivery vehicles. The US is gearing up for a world with nuclear peers. Still, China poses a unique challenge as it is not only a nuclear adversary but also “an economic peer and an important global trade and technology influencer.”
The US notes that China is moving away from a no-first-use policy.
“As a result, we have placed new emphasis on the use of export control regulations for critical dual-use technologies. We are also more aware of supply chain dependencies. China’s nuclear policies are intentionally opaque, and their willingness to engage in dialog has been limited. However, it appears they are moving from a no-first-use policy to a launch on warning strategy given silo construction and the development of advanced warning systems,” Hruby elaborated.
After the Cold War, key production facilities like plutonium pits were closed. “We also know now that we will need to restart a domestic uranium enrichment program for defense purposes. Our nearest-term priority is to produce low-enriched uranium to fuel tritium-producing nuclear reactors. Further down the line, we will need to produce highly enriched uranium for our naval nuclear propulsion program,” Hruby added.
Besides this, she said that the US needs the capability to make “high explosives” since there are limited suppliers. The US is also looking at re-establishment of its old facilities that have been contaminated and are in disrepair. In many cases, both the facility and the processes date back to the Manhattan Project.
