With the US making it clear that Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership are not “realistic,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is looking for other credible “security guarantees.” One of the plans he has suggested is deploying a 100,000-strong peacekeeping force to the demarcation line with the Russian Federation.
Speaking to journalists during a visit to the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant on February 13, Zelenskyy said: “What are these security guarantees? Is it NATO? Mighty weapons, missiles, nuclear weapons? Some kind of deterrent package. Or, as I said, we will build NATO in Ukraine. Then, in reality, weapons from you, a contingent from Europeans and Americans. And the contingent will not be 5,000 to 7,000, as was once suggested…we need 100,000 personnel there.”
However, the US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has also ruled out the possibility of American boots on the ground in Ukraine.
During his recent visit to Germany to attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, commonly known as the Ramstein format, Hegseth was prompted by a reporter to discuss potential US troop deployments in Ukraine, to which he said no.
“We are not sending US troops into Ukraine,” Hegseth said.
With US troops out of the equation, the big question is: Can Europe, on its own, muster a 100,000-strong peacekeeping force for deployment in Ukraine? And, is such a big force really required to secure the frontline in Ukraine?
The Rationale Behind 100,000-Strong Peacekeeping Force
On paper, a 100,000-strong international peacekeeping force may seem like a lot. However, given the expansive frontline between Ukraine and Russia, this is actually less than a platoon per kilometer.
The approximate length of the active front line in the Ukraine war is about 1,200 km. To this, if we also add the length of the border between Ukraine and Russia, then this frontline becomes over 2,300 km long. Now, since Russia is also planning to station thousands of troops in Belarus, any credible security architecture must involve the deployment of an international peacekeeping force at the Ukraine-Belarus border as well.
The Ukraine-Belarus border is approximately 1,100 km long. Thus, in effect, the peacekeeping force must be deployed along an expansive 3,400 km frontline. This means that less than 30 soldiers will be available for one km of the frontline.
Europe’s Contribution To UN Peacekeeping Force
Since the US has already explicitly stated that the American military will not participate in any security mission in Ukraine, such a force has to be extracted from European countries only.
Firstly, if Europe is able to deliver such a massive peacekeeping force, then this will be the largest peacekeeping operation ever. For perspective, as per the UN, the total UN peacekeeping force is around 97,000 soldiers.
This peacekeeping force is drawn from the militaries of over 120 countries. However, the largest contributions come from South Asian countries. As of 2024, Nepal is the largest contributor, with 6,247 soldiers, followed by Bangladesh, which contributes 6,197 soldiers. India, in third place, contributes 6,073 soldiers.
Rwanda, with 5,919 soldiers, is next, followed by Pakistan (4,164 soldiers). Indonesia, Ghana, China, Egypt, Morocco, Tanzania, Senegal, Cameroon, and South Africa are next in line.
So, the largest contributors to the UN peacekeeping force are South Asian and African countries. However, it is very unlikely that any of these countries will contribute soldiers for peacekeeping missions in Ukraine. Given that Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the peacekeeping mission in Ukraine will not be UN-mandated and can only be at the initiative of European countries.
Now, let’s look at the contributions of European countries to UN peacekeeping missions. In 2024, Italy was the largest European contributor to the UN peacekeeping force, with 876 soldiers. Italy was followed by Spain (681), France (626), Germany (590), and Ireland (493 soldiers). All European countries together contributed just a few thousand soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions.
Also, as of 2024, the largest UN Peacekeeping force is deployed in the Central African Republic, which has around 18,500 soldiers. So, Zelenskyy is asking for an international peacekeeping force, extracted exclusively from European countries, which is more than five times the size of the largest UN peacekeeping force anywhere in the world.
Can Europe Deliver A 100,000-Strong Peacekeeping Force?
The idea of a large European peacekeeping force in Ukraine is not new and has been under discussion for some time now. According to French Newspaper Le Monde, discussions about sending troops to Ukraine resumed in November 2024 after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.
In December, Radio Free Europe, citing a senior NATO official who requested anonymity, reported that France and the United Kingdom were discussing deploying troops in Ukraine.
News agency AP reported on February 15 that Europe has been discussing a peacekeeping force in Ukraine for at least a year.
Let’s examine the military strength of NATO countries to determine the number of troops that can be contributed.
According to Statista, the US has the largest military in NATO, with 1,328,000 active soldiers. Turkey is in second place, with 355,200 active soldiers. However, both of these NATO countries will not deploy any soldiers in Ukraine. Within Europe, Poland has the largest military, with 202,100 active military personnel.
If we exclude the US, Canada, and Turkey, there are approximately 1.5 million soldiers in NATO. However, Slovakia and Hungary are also NATO members and openly sympathetic to Russia. Excluding the US, Canada, Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia, there are around 1.44 million soldiers in NATO.
Thus, the required 100,000 is only 6.94% of the total number of NATO troops, even without considering non-European countries like the US and Canada, neutral countries like Turkey, and countries with pro-Russian governments like Slovakia and Hungary.
So, if all European countries contribute around 7 % of their active military personnel for deployment in Ukraine, Zelenskyy can have a 100,000-strong international peacekeeping force on Ukraine’s frontline with Russia. Seven percent is a significant number, but given that there are absolutely no border disputes within the EU, the European countries can contribute these many soldiers.
However, this is easier said than done.
Italy has constitutional limits on using its forces on foreign territory. The Netherlands and Germany would require permission from their respective parliaments. Germany is awaiting elections, and it’s anybody’s guess what position the newly elected German government will take. Poland will also be cautious, given the lingering animosities with Ukraine that date back to the Second World War. Poland also shares a border with the Russian Federation in Kaliningrad and will think twice before provoking Moscow.
UK Dithering Already?
On paper, deploying seven percent of your active military personnel to secure a lasting peace in Europe seems manageable. But this will come with a host of challenges.
Analysts agree that if a European peacekeeping force is to be deployed in Ukraine, it must be led by French and British troops. However, the former head of the British Army, Lord Dannatt, thinks that the UK “just haven’t got that number available.”
Speaking to the BBC, Lord Dannatt said: “Our military is so run down at the present moment, numerically, and as far as capability and equipment is concerned, it would potentially be quite embarrassing.”
“I mean, if we were to deploy 10,000 troops, each rotation for six months, that would effectively tie up 30,000 or 40,000 troops, and we just haven’t got that number available. So there are some big issues here that today’s politicians won’t really have considered.”
Conclusion
A 100,000-strong peacekeeping force drawn exclusively from European countries is not impossible. However, this would require unflinching determination on the part of all European countries. They will also need to address various legal issues before deploying their troops in foreign territory.
The US has also made it clear that such an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine will not be covered under Article 5 of NATO. On the other hand, Russia has made it clear that any international peacekeeping force in Ukraine without the UN mandate would be a legitimate target for Russian forces.
It would be interesting to see if, beyond mere rhetoric, European countries can actually muster the courage to build such a massive force and deploy it in the war zone in Ukraine.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK. He is interested in studying Geopolitics from a historical perspective.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
