Russia’s Iskander ballistic missile, which has posed significant challenges for Ukrainian forces since the onset of the invasion, is expected to become more lethal with an upgraded guidance system and enhanced range.
According to Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian media outlets, the missile is anticipated to be designated “Iskander-1000” after its range of 1,000 kilometers. It would also have an upgraded warhead.
Reports circulating online indicate that the missile was initially unveiled in May 2024 through a propaganda video that celebrated the 78th anniversary of the Kapustin Yar missile test site.
EurAsian Times could not independently verify these claims.
The 9K720 Iskander is a mobile short-range ballistic missile system extensively deployed in the ongoing Ukraine war. The “operational-tactical” 9K720 Iskander-M has a range of 150 to 500 kilometers. The Iskander travels along a semi-ballistic trajectory, resembling a cruise missile in flight while achieving speeds exceeding Mach 4, which complicates interception efforts.
This missile has presented significant challenges for Ukrainian forces. Consequently, a longer-range variant of this missile would pose an even greater threat.
A Russian military blogger wrote: “On May 6, 2024, the Russian Foreign Ministry made a statement that Russia is starting production of medium-range and shorter-range missile systems. One of the variants of the missile complex with a range of up to 1000 kilometers can be a modified ballistic missile of the 9K720 Iskander-M complex with an updated engine, control system, and improved warhead.”
According to information released by a Ukrainian media outlet, Defense Express, the missile could potentially have a deviation coefficient of up to 5 meters from its target.
The report also noted that the updated warhead would likely employ an “autonomous inertial guidance system, likely with satellite navigation correction and possibly with radar guidance based on a terrain map in the target area during the final stage of flight.”
The Iskander-1000 missile can be fired with an Iskander launcher and shares structural similarities with the 9M723 ballistic missile of the Iskander tactical missile system. However, the extent of similarities it shares with previous Iskander variants and the weight of the Iskander-1000 is not known.
The development follows reports from several months ago suggesting that Russia was enhancing its Iskander and Kinzhal missiles to have greater range, more powerful warheads, improved capabilities to evade air defenses, and even ‘smarter’ or advanced communication features that allow them to coordinate during mass salvo launches.
At the time, former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu suggested improving the “performance characteristics” of the missiles during a visit to the Mechanical Engineering Design Bureau in Kolomna. “The Iskander and Kinzhal missile systems need to be modified taking into account the experience of their use in the Northern Military District,” Shoigu was quoted by Izvestia.
Earlier, a Russian Military expert, Dmitry Kornev, said: “Taking into account the latest advances in mixed solid fuels, it is possible to install a new engine in the 9M723, which gives it a range of 1000 km, while maintaining the mass of the warhead at least 500 kg. It is likely that work in this direction is already underway.”
According to experts, the Iskander-1000 would strengthen Russia’s military prowess and likely endanger NATO states. The reports about its development come as both the US and Russia have exited the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, making it viable now to increase the missile’s range from the current cap of 500 kilometers.
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Of greater importance, the reports emerged following the United States’ announcement in July regarding its plans to begin deploying long-range missiles to Germany. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe, and in other regions of the world.”
Some pro-Ukrainian bloggers have expressed concern that Russia could indeed be working to increase the range of its most potent and combat-proven ballistic missiles, especially after their hands-on experience with the North Korean KN-23 missiles, which have a range between 800-900 kilometers.
Some experts have noted that the development and fielding of any such missile could pose a massive threat to the Ukrainian F-16s.
Ukrainian F-16s Are Coming; They Might Not Be Safe
As the reports about the Iskander-1000 development spread on social media, some military watchers said that a long-range ballistic missile would likely hinder the operations of F-16 fighter jets that are due to arrive in Ukraine soon.
Military analyst and avid watcher of Russian military affairs, Squadron Leader Vijainder K. Thakur (retd) says: “Because of the threat from Russian ballistic and cruise missiles, it’s likely that NATO F-16s will operate from Ukrainian air bases with hardened shelters in central or Western Ukraine. Starokonstantinov airbase in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, which hosts Su-24 upgraded to launch Storm Shadow missiles, could also serve as the F-16 home base. Russian forces have repeatedly attacked the airbase, but it continues to remain in use.”
He further speculated that “F-16s could also be based at Dubno airbase in the Rivne region, West Ukraine. The Dubno Airfield is a military facility. It is likely used for shipments of weapons to Ukraine by air.
It’s out of range of Russian missiles like Iskander-M and Kinzhal. However, Dubno would be within range of the Iskander-1000.” He concludes by saying that having a missile with the range and accuracy to strike F-16s at Dubno is only half the problem solved. There still remains the issue of pinpointing the F-16s in their hardened shelters.
Ever since the transfer of F-16 to Ukraine was approved by NATO, Russia has warned that the aircraft would become sitting ducks for Russian missiles and be obliterated even before they take off. Ukraine, on its part, has dismissed these threats and continued to strengthen its air defense.
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