Right Under U.S. Nose, China Sneaks Into Subi Reef; Sets Up Military Base Just Miles Away From Philippines

With cracks already showing in the fragile peace established between China and the US-backed Philippines, a new video has surfaced revealing a fully operational Chinese military base at Subi Reef.

An aircraft belonging to the Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) was recently monitoring Chinese activity in Sandy Cay when it observed Chinese buildings and military hardware at the Subi Reef. These military structures were recorded in a video, which has since been published online and widely shared on social media.

The video reveals that the artificial island in Subi Reef, built by China in 2013, features large structures, including a runway, radar domes, antennas, vehicles, and hangars. The local Filipino media reported that the appearance of the fully functional, large military base follows years of unhindered construction of military facilities there.

According to the reports, a large deepwater shelter port was also observed in the region, where Chinese ships could take refuge from high waves. Chinese maritime militia warships were also visible in the vicinity.

The Filipino military also confirmed the construction of the Chinese base on the same day the video was released. Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the navy’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, reportedly informed the media that China has completed the construction of large military structures, airstrips, and storage facilities in the region, which lies outside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but within the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea of its Pag-asa Island.

Trinidad made the admission in an interview with GMA’s DZBB on August 6. Without mincing words, he said, “It is safe to assume that they have continued their maintenance and expansion little by little. As it is right now, it is a fully functional military base with naval and airforce capabilities.”

Trinidad also said that the military buildings at Subi Reef are “not ordinary facilities,” noting that the Philippine Navy spotted enormous storage facilities presumably packed with ammunition and fuel. The Philippine Navy has observed Chinese coast guard vessels, marine militias, and naval forces approaching the island.

China has militarised large swathes of the South China Sea, most of which it claims as its sovereign territory. For instance, US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John C Aquilino stated in 2022 that China had completely militarized at least three of the artificial islands it constructed in the contested sea, outfitting them with fighter jets, laser and jamming technology, and anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems.

However, the Subi Reef may be of particular concern to the Philippines as it is a part of the country’s continental shelf in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) and lies about 16 miles, or 26 kilometers, from Pag-asa or Thitu Island in Palawan. To put it in perspective, Thitu Island is one of the most prominent and strategically located islands in the South China Sea.

China Sits At The Subi Reef 

Since its occupation by mainland China in 1988, Subi Reef has served as the nation’s northernmost stronghold inside the Spratly Island group. Initially covered by water at high tide, the reef has since been converted into a permanent military facility due to Chinese construction.

China has been building military installations on Subi Reef and other artificial islands throughout the Spratly Islands since 2013 as part of dredging and island-building.

In his latest interaction with the media, Filipino navy spokesperson Trinidad said China has maintained and expanded on Subi Reef and other characteristics in the West Philippine Sea despite the 2016 arbitral tribunal decision that nullified its expansive claim to almost the whole South China Sea.

While China has been militarizing the reef since at least 2014, the extent of militarisation may be concerning for Manila as it comes at a time of heightened tensions between the Philippines and China over territorial disputes, including instances of physical assault of Filipino forces by the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG). The assault happened at the Second Thomas Shoal, where a Filipino vessel, Sierra Madre, functions as a Filipino outpost.

The two countries have since come a long way, with a provisional agreement establishing a fragile and shaky peace in the region. However, it has done little to change the situation on the ground. With a fragile agreement in effect that is beginning to reveal weaknesses, the substantial Chinese military presence just a few miles from a key Filipino island raises concerns.

This becomes particularly noteworthy in light of previous incidents where Chinese forces have harassed researchers and fishermen working around the Thitu Islands in the Philippines. There have also been several instances of Chinese vessels sailing close to the Thitu Island.

The Filipino military has not expressed a particular threat from the Chinese military base in the region. But, Trinidad said that his country had no choice except to ask the international community for assistance in upholding the 2016 ruling—barring the possibility of war.

Nonetheless, EurAsian Times spoke to Miguel Miranda, a Philippines-based military analyst, to understand the extent of the threat posed by the Chinese military at Subi.

What Does Subi’s Militarization Mean For Manila?

When asked whether China appears to be preparing for a potential future military showdown, given the small distance between Subi and Thitu, Miguel said: “Certainly. The sheer size of the Subi Reef airbase is enormous. The length of the runway and nearby hangars look like they can support multiple flights of medium-lift transports. The island itself is shaped like a harbor. The Philippines’ own Pagasa Island has an airstrip for C-130s and an upcoming port for small ships to dock. The problem is the island is almost surrounded by the Chinese coast guard.”

Miguel also cleared the air surrounding a key question asked by netizens: Whether the Philippines have anything to thwart this militarisation? Miguel said, “Subi Reef’s location falls outside the EEZ of the Philippines, and, more importantly, there’s an armada of Chinese ships always present in the nearby waters. Our ships are outnumbered and outgunned.”

When this correspondent asked about the long-term repercussions of this massive militarization, Miguel said rather categorically: “It’s obvious that aside from vast numbers, China has superior intelligence and infrastructure in these waters. The result? Long-term conflict.”

Having said that, the Philippines has also been strengthening its presence on Thitu Island to counter China’s expansion. Manila’s military chief, Romeo Brawner, announced in January this year that the Philippines plans to develop the islands in the South China Sea that it claims as its territory to improve living conditions for troops.

This includes the Thitu Islands. Additionally, last month, Manila began the construction of an airport on the island as part of its larger strategy to strengthen its presence in the region.

In addition to the Philippines, its treaty ally, the United States, is likely to closely monitor the Chinese military base at Subi, especially as it has increased its presence in the country in response to escalating threats from Beijing’s military actions in the region. Last year, the US secured access to four new Filipino bases in addition to the five that it has been accessing for a while under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The US, on its part, has strongly condemned China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, along with its growing expansion in the region.

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